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AI Agency Vendor Scorecard: Failure Probability Calculator (2025)

Choosing an AI development partner is a high-stakes decision. With 68% of AI projects failing to meet goals (Gartner), the risk of picking the wrong vendor is high. Reviews on sites like Clutch help, but they don’t measure your specific risk. This guide offers a data-driven Failure Probability Calculator, a scorecard framework, and a risk mitigation plan to help you choose with confidence.

Avoid the 68% AI project failure rate
Quantify your project's specific risk
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The AI Vendor Risk Landscape

AI vendor risk searches have grown 190% year-over-year. Success depends less on vendor promises and more on mitigating quantifiable risks from day one.

AI Vendor Failure Probability Calculator

Answer three questions to get your project's baseline risk score before vendor selection.

Your Project's Baseline Failure Probability

52%
Medium Risk

Medium Risk: Extra due diligence recommended for vendor selection.

Risk calculation includes industry, timeline, and compliance factors with 15% baseline risk.

Vendor Scorecard Framework

Once you understand your baseline risk, use this scorecard to evaluate potential vendors. A vendor should decrease your risk, not add to it. Below are the key evaluation areas. Use the interactive calculator to score a specific vendor.

Technical Expertise Assessment (Click to Expand)

  • Does the vendor have verifiable case studies in your industry?
  • Is their technical team in-house or outsourced?
  • What is their experience with your specific technology stack and required AI models?

Business Acumen Assessment (Click to Expand)

  • Do they understand your core business problem and ROI goals?
  • Can they articulate how the AI solution will drive specific business KPIs?
  • Do they challenge your assumptions or simply agree to everything?

Interactive Vendor Scorecard

Rate a potential vendor on each criterion to get their weighted score.

Technical Fit

40% weight

How well does their solution match your technical requirements?

5
/ 10
Poor (1)Average (5)Excellent (10)

Business Understanding

30% weight

How well do they understand your business context and goals?

5
/ 10
Poor (1)Average (5)Excellent (10)

Process & Communication

30% weight

How effective are their project management and communication?

5
/ 10
Poor (1)Average (5)Excellent (10)

Overall Vendor Assessment

5.0
out of 10.0
Below Average

Poor Fit: This vendor shows significant gaps. Consider other options or request major improvements in low-scoring areas.

Technical Fit
2.0
5 × 40% weight
Business Understanding
1.5
5 × 30% weight
Process & Communication
1.5
5 × 30% weight

Risk Mitigation Framework

If your project's failure probability is medium or high, it doesn't mean you shouldn't proceed. It means you must implement a rigorous risk mitigation strategy. Here are the essential steps:

  • Confirm vendor has at least two case studies in your industry.
  • Build a 10% buffer into the project timeline and budget.

30-Day Vendor Selection Roadmap

Use this structured 4-week process to move from initial research to a signed contract with the right partner.

  1. Week 1: Risk Assessment & Requirements Gathering. Complete the Failure Probability Calculator. Solidify your project scope, budget, and technical requirements into a formal RFP (Request for Proposal).
  2. Week 2: Vendor Evaluation & Scoring. Send your RFP to a shortlist of 3-5 vendors. Use the Scorecard Framework to objectively score their proposals and initial calls.
  3. Week 3: Reference Checks & Deep Dive. Conduct thorough reference checks with past clients (especially those in your industry). Schedule a technical deep-dive session with the vendor's proposed project team.
  4. Week 4: Contract Negotiation & Onboarding. Finalize the statement of work (SOW), ensuring all milestones, deliverables, and acceptance criteria are clearly defined. Begin the project kick-off and onboarding process.

Ready to Mitigate Your AI Project Risk?

Download our full toolkit, including the interactive scorecards, risk planners, and RFP templates to get started.